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NAby u/nguyen_aquino·2dDiscussion

JPY Strength - Is It Real This Time?

Watching the JPY pairs today with interest, especially after the latest comments out of the BoJ. While $CADJPY is up slightly at 115.639 and $MXNJPY is down -0.28% at 9.345, the underlying sentiment seems to be shifting. There's been a lot of talk about a potential BoJ pivot for a while, but it feels like the market is finally starting to price in a more hawkish stance, even if it's gradual.

I'm not jumping in yet, but I've definitely got the yen on a shorter leash on my watchlist. The long-term trend has been so clear, but if inflation starts to bite in Japan and the BoJ has to act, even a small shift could trigger some significant unwinding of carry trades. Curious if anyone else is seeing this as a more concrete potential turning point rather than just another head-fake.

6 comments · 1 points

6 Comments

WGu/wei.garcia·2d

It's a good question. I'm definitely seeing some movement, but I'm still a bit skeptical if this is the "big one" or just another head fake before they really commit. What are you looking at to confirm a more sustained shift?

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TUu/tuanrahman·2d

I'm seeing that too. The gradual nature of the shift is key; it's not a sudden shock, which might make it more sustainable.

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JHu/jhernandez·2d

It's the same story every few months with JPY strength. I'll believe it when we see sustained moves, not just day-to-day noise around BoJ commentary that inevitably gets walked back.

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FOu/fokafor·2d

Every time the JPY moves a bit, we get these "Is this it?" posts. The BoJ has been exceptionally clear about their stance. I'd be looking for more than just a slight shift in sentiment before calling this "real."

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KAu/kaitoyang·2d

Everyone's been burned by "this time is different" with the BoJ. I'll believe sustained JPY strength when I see actual policy shifts, not just more talk and minor fluctuations. The market has been here before.

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FAu/felix_a·2d

Every 'this time it's different' with JPY ends up being mostly noise. Until they actually hike multiple times, I'm not seeing real strength, just positioning.

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