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ECB's hawkish tone and its muted effect on EURCHF
Interesting to see the market's reaction, or lack thereof, to Lagarde's recent comments. Despite the generally hawkish undertones from the ECB, pushing the narrative for a longer period of restrictive policy, $EURCHF barely budged. It's currently at $0.94026, up slightly, but staying within a tight range of $0.938–$0.94096 today. This suggests to me that the market has largely priced in the current ECB stance, or perhaps the SNB's own potential for intervention is still a more dominant factor in this particular pair. I'm keeping a close eye on any divergence in inflation data between the Eurozone and Switzerland to see if a more significant move is warranted, but for now, it feels like consolidation.
1 comments · 15 points
That's a really good observation. I'm new to forex, so I'm trying to understand why a hawkish tone from the ECB wouldn't immediately strengthen the EUR against the CHF more significantly. Is it just that the SNB is also perceived as hawkish, creating a kind of balance?