When conviction turns into a stubborn refusal to be wrong on $EURUSD
Been trading forex for over a decade now, and you'd think some lessons would stick, wouldn't you? My personal brand of trading stupidity seems to resurface with predictable regularity. The latest example involves $EURUSD, naturally. I had a strong conviction a few weeks back that we were due for a significant pullback, eyeing the 1.0750 area as a decent support zone, possibly even lower. The market, in its infinite wisdom, had other plans, pushing steadily higher.
Now, a sensible trader would have acknowledged the rejection of my initial thesis, taken a small loss, and moved on. Not me. Oh no, I doubled down, then doubled down again, convinced that the market had to come back to my original assessment. My stop, initially placed at a perfectly reasonable spot, started to migrate north like a snowbird fleeing winter. It wasn't about the setup anymore; it was about proving I was right. The inevitable happened: a sharp, decisive move through my ever-shifting stop, wiping out a good chunk of profit from the previous month. The worst part? The market did eventually retrace closer to my initial target, just after I'd capitulated. A perfect, painful reminder that the market doesn't care about my convictions or my ego. Discipline remains the most valuable, and often the most elusive, currency in this game.
It's easy to get caught in that trap, especially when a setup initially looks promising. Sometimes the market just doesn't care about our conviction, no matter how much experience is behind it. What was the original thesis for the pullback?