The enduring myth of the DXY's 'true' predictive power for majors like CADUSD

Been watching the $CADUSD today, currently sitting around 0.71723. It's up a decent +0.57% for the day, having pushed from a low of 0.7131 to 0.7177. At the same time, the $USDX is up slightly at 25.505. It's often tossed around that the DXY is this ironclad predictor for the majors, especially pairs like CADUSD where the dollar is a direct component. The narrative is that if DXY goes up, dollar pairs should move in lockstep, and vice versa.

While there's an undeniable correlation, I often find its predictive weight overstated. Today's action is a good example. CADUSD has had a respectable move north, yet the DXY is also showing strength. It highlights to me that individual currency dynamics, local economic data, and specific sentiment for the CAD are often more influential in the short-to-medium term than the broader DXY basket. It's easy to get caught up in the DXY as the all-encompassing oracle, but it frequently feels more like a lagging confirmation than a leading indicator for specific crosses. Am I missing something fundamental here, or do others find the DXY's predictive power for individual pairs often less impactful than advertised? Push back if you see it differently.