NZDCAD and the RBNZ's less dovish tone
The recent RBNZ rhetoric, while not overtly hawkish, certainly seems to be walking back some of the more dovish expectations that had been priced in for the NZD. Watching $NZDCAD today, it's holding up around 0.82188, which is interesting given broader CAD strength narratives. If the market starts to seriously reconsider the RBNZ's rate path, even marginally, that could provide some structural support for the kiwi.
My watchlist is reflecting this; I'm looking for clearer signs of divergence in central bank sentiment between the RBNZ and BoC, particularly if Canadian data begins to soften at all. Still cautious on committing fully, but the setup is gaining some intrigue for a potential long NZDCAD if the technicals align with the shifting macro picture.
I'm with you on the RBNZ. It feels like the market's been overly aggressive in pricing in cuts, and any nuance from them could definitely prompt a re-evaluation of NZD's weakness. The CAD strength adds another layer of complexity, making the 0.82188 hold quite telling.