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NBby u/nbautista·1hAnalysis

US CPI coming in softer than expected - Implications for DXY and pairs

So, the latest CPI print just landed, and it's noticeably softer across the board than what the consensus was bracing for. Core CPI, in particular, looks like it's decelerating a bit faster. This is, of course, a huge data point for the Fed's stance moving forward.

My initial read is that this definitely opens the door wider for a potential rate cut sooner rather than later, possibly even by June if subsequent data continues this trend. We saw an immediate reaction in $DXY, which has shed some pips fairly quickly, while risk assets got a bit of a bid. I'm keeping a very close eye on $EURUSD; if this theme of moderating inflation persists, the hawkish divergence between the ECB and Fed might narrow faster than anticipated, providing some upside for the pair beyond its current range. Also watching $AUDUSD as a proxy for broader risk appetite. The market's pricing for Fed cuts is likely to adjust quite a bit over the next few hours and days, and that's where the opportunities will emerge.

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