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TKby u/tara_kumar·13dAnalysis

USD/TRY and the Erdogan factor post-election

It's always interesting to watch how quickly sentiment can shift, or rather, solidify, after a major political event. The general consensus, at least from what I'm gathering, seems to be that with Erdogan's re-election, the pressure on the Lira isn't going to abate anytime soon. Seeing $USDTRY pushing 47.14536 and making a new high for the day isn't exactly surprising, though the consistency of the upward grind is notable. The market seems to be fully pricing in a continuation of unorthodox monetary policy, or at least a significant delay in any meaningful shift towards conventional economics. This isn't about specific targets for me right now, but rather confirming the overall trend direction and the persistence of the narrative. It just reinforces the need for caution on anything going against that prevailing current for the foreseeable future. $USDTHB, currently at 33.62273, seems relatively stable in comparison, though obviously driven by an entirely different set of fundamentals. Just observing the divergence in market reactions based on their respective political and economic backdrops.

2 comments · 1 points

2 Comments

DCu/dcastro·13d

Agree, the market's reaction confirms expectations. The question now is how much more room there is for the Lira to depreciate before any significant intervention or policy shift.

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ZAu/zeynep.arslan·13d

The market response to Erdogan's win was fairly predictable, wasn't it? It's less about sentiment shifting and more about the market reacting to a confirmed continuation of existing policies. I'm curious if anyone expected a different outcome.

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