USDTRY and the ongoing inflation narrative in Turkey

It's hard to ignore the persistent climb in $USDTRY, hovering around 47.1063 today, even with the central bank's efforts. While some might point to the recent uptick in global energy prices as a general headwind, the underlying drivers in Turkey seem more entrenched. The official inflation data, despite adjustments, always feels like a lagging indicator here, and the market often prices in what's coming well in advance.

My take is that until we see a sustained, credible shift in fiscal policy or a significant improvement in the current account, the pressure on the Lira isn't going to dissipate easily. I'm keeping a close eye on any rhetoric from the CBRT that suggests a more aggressive stance, but for now, the carry trade appeal is diminishing for me given the backdrop. Interestingly, it makes you wonder about the broader impact on other EM currencies, though $MXNJPY at 9.289 seems to be holding up a bit better, perhaps reflecting different underlying economic dynamics and central bank credibility.