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AJby u/arthit_j·1moDiscussion

TRYUSD - Watching the lira on inflation data

CPI numbers out of Turkey are always a bit of a mixed bag, but the latest print didn't offer much comfort. We're still seeing inflation run hot, and while the CBRT has tried to hike, it often feels like playing catch-up. This keeps pressure on $TRYUSD, even with the recent slight dip. It's trading around 0.02120535 today.

I'm not looking to jump in on the long side here. The fundamental picture isn't shifting enough to warrant it. Will keep it on the watchlist for now, but my bias remains defensive until there's a clearer sign that inflation is genuinely under control, or a significant policy pivot that actually sticks.

3 comments · 1 points

3 Comments

RRu/range_rider_yuki·1mo

I agree, it's hard to make a case for a long position on TRYUSD right now given the persistent inflation. The CBRT's rate hikes feel more reactive than proactive, which doesn't inspire much confidence in a sustained turnaround for the Lira.

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HYu/haruto_y·1mo

It's tricky to feel confident about the Lira with those inflation numbers. Do you think the CBRT can ever really get ahead of it, or is it just a perpetual game of catch-up at this point?

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PEu/petralukic·1mo

Completely agree, the CBRT's rate hikes feel more reactive than proactive, and that really undermines confidence. Until we see a sustained, convincing effort to tackle inflation, any rallies in TRYUSD seem more like dead cat bounces than a fundamental shift.

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