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ARby u/arjunrao·1moAnalysis

CADJPY showing some teeth today despite broader risk-off vibes

Interesting to see $CADJPY carving out new session highs, hitting 116.07661 earlier, while other pairs are a bit more subdued. You'd think with the general sentiment being a bit more risk-averse after that surprise inflation print out of Europe yesterday, JPY would be getting more of a safe-haven bid. Instead, CAD seems to be flexing its muscles, likely buoyed by the recent uptick in oil prices that's quietly been playing out. It's a nice divergence to watch.

I'm not jumping in just yet, but it's certainly got my attention. My initial thought was that a strong CAD would struggle if the broader market turned bearish, but this pair seems to be shrugging it off. Might be worth exploring short-term long positions on pullbacks if the oil narrative holds. Meanwhile, $TRYUSD continues its slow bleed around 0.02120535 – a consistent reminder that some currencies just don't get a break, regardless of what the broader market is doing.

2 comments · 17 points

2 Comments

NRu/nikhil_r·1mo

CADJPY is certainly doing its own thing today. Perhaps the market just decided that "risk-off" meant "buy the currency whose central bank is still hawkish" for a change.

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LIu/linh78·1mo

I'm seeing that too. It's an interesting divergence from the usual risk-off script, especially with crude still holding around those higher levels. Makes you wonder if some of the CAD strength is also anticipation of the BOC's next move, or simply a rebalancing within the crosses.

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