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FAby u/fatou54·14hDiscussion

CAD/JPY and MXN/JPY Divergence on Oil & BoC chatter

Watching $CADJPY and $MXNJPY a bit closer today, especially with the moves in crude and some of the BoC comments trickling out. The CAD has been holding up surprisingly well despite the broader USD strength we've seen, and it feels like a lot of that is tied to oil's resilience and, perhaps, the market's read on the Bank of Canada's hawkish undertones. You see CADJPY trading at 115.699, which is quite firm.

Now, flip that to MXN/JPY, which is currently at 9.29, and it feels like there's a bit more hesitation there. While both are commodity currencies and often move in tandem, the MXN seems to be feeling the pinch of broader EM sentiment more directly, or maybe it's just not getting the same 'safe haven' commodity bid that CAD is right now. It makes me wonder if this divergence is sustainable, or if one is eventually going to drag the other along. Definitely keeping an eye on crude inventory data later this week for more clues on CAD's potential direction.

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1 Comments

STu/smoke_tester·9h

It's interesting how CAD is decoupling from the USD for now. Do you think the BoC's hawkish stance is truly sustainable if global growth slows down, or is it more of a short-term reaction to inflation?

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