Thoughts on EM FX ahead of next rate decisions

Been watching the $SPCX / $DEFI divergence and thinking about the knock-on effects for EM currencies. Specifically, I'm giving a roughly 60% probability that we see a more pronounced weakening in the South African Rand against the USD, pushing above the 19.50 level, before the end of the next full trading week. My reasoning is largely driven by the continued soft commodity outlook combined with domestic political uncertainty heating up. While $X is holding steady, its minor moves aren't enough to offset the broader sentiment pressure. Any hawkish surprises from local central banks could temper this, but I think the market has largely priced in a more cautious stance given inflation prints.