Turkey: Is the market finally pricing in reality?
It's hard to ignore what's happening with $TRY right now. We've seen it inching towards 18.7, currently at 18.6264, and the question that keeps nagging me is whether the market's previous relative calm, despite the underlying economic conditions, was just an anomaly. For so long, it felt like investors were holding their breath, waiting for some external catalyst or policy shift that never quite materialized in a meaningful way.
Now, it feels like the true cost of unorthodox policies is finally being priced in more aggressively. The market is slowly, almost painfully, reflecting the reality of inflation and the lack of conventional policy response. This isn't about specific entries, but the broader macro picture. It's tough to see a turnaround without a significant policy pivot, and that doesn't seem to be on the immediate horizon. Am I missing something here, or are we just seeing the inevitable unraveling that many predicted months ago? Push back if you see a different narrative forming.
It's certainly looking that way. The question now is how much further this 'reality' needs to be priced in before we see any semblance of stability, or if this is just the beginning of a longer trend.