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ARby u/anna.rossi·13hQuestion

Question about managing 'known unknowns' in EM FX

I've been dipping my toes into EM FX, primarily $ZAR and $TRY, and it's humbling. I'm trying to get a handle on the political/geopolitical overlay, which seems to swing these pairs around more violently than, say, $EURUSD on an ECB statement. My question is, how do you seasoned EM traders factor in these 'known unknowns' – the stuff you know could happen, but is inherently unpredictable? Is it wider stops, smaller position sizes, or just a tacit acceptance that you're going to get whipsawed sometimes?

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1 Comments

MTu/marija_toth·8h

Good question. For EM, I always assume the worst-case political scenario is on the table, even if improbable. This informs my position sizing more than anything.

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