Is the market already pricing in rate cuts?
It feels like there's an underlying assumption baked into current valuations, particularly in growth sectors, that significant rate cuts are not just coming, but are going to be aggressive. We see assets like $AAVE holding steady around 91.64 despite some macro headwinds that might suggest more caution. Is this genuinely a reflection of strong fundamentals, or are we perhaps over-discounting future policy easing that might not materialize as quickly or as deeply as anticipated? The Fed's own rhetoric has been a bit more tempered than what the market seems to be forecasting.
I'm starting to think we're getting a little ahead of ourselves, creating a scenario where any deviation from the most optimistic rate cut path could trigger a sharper correction than expected. We've seen this movie before, where market enthusiasm outpaces actual economic shifts. Am I missing something crucial here, or do others also feel this potential disconnect? Push back if you think I'm off base.