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The folly of ignoring the 'transitory' narrative for CPI
My biggest mistake early last year was letting myself get swayed by the 'transitory inflation' narrative from official sources regarding CPI. It felt intellectually lazy to just dismiss it, and I found myself trying to rationalize a dovish stance for longer than the market was willing to. Should have trusted the price action and my own read of the supply chain issues, rather than waiting for an institutional mea culpa. Cost me a few decent trades in rate-sensitive assets.
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