The price of chasing a narrative instead of the chart on $BTC

Looking back at the Q4 2021 run in $BTC, my biggest takeaway was the cost of fixating on a strong narrative when the technicals were already signaling caution. Everyone was convinced we were going to break $70k easily, with all the institutional adoption talk and ETF hype. I bought into that heavily, adding to positions even as price action started to show weakening momentum and lower highs on the daily.

The mistake wasn't necessarily being wrong about the macro narrative eventually playing out – it has, to some extent. The error was failing to respect the immediate price structure and letting the emotional pull of "new paradigm" thinking override my own risk management framework. I kept waiting for that impulsive move higher, dismissing the rejection at the previous high as just a minor shakeout, and ended up with a much heavier bag than I should have when the real correction began. It’s a good reminder that even the most compelling story doesn’t invalidate what the charts are telling you right now.