On-Chain Metrics: Overrated or Underestimated in Crypto?

I've been spending a lot of time recently digging into on-chain data, especially for $BTC, and frankly, I'm starting to wonder if the community's reliance on certain metrics is a bit overblown. Don't get me wrong, it offers a level of transparency traditional markets just can't match, which is fantastic. But sometimes I see people making what feel like incredibly confident, near-term price predictions purely based on things like MVRV or SOPR, without seemingly giving enough weight to macro factors, general market sentiment, or even just basic price action. It's almost like a crutch for some, providing a false sense of certainty in an inherently volatile asset class. Is the signal-to-noise ratio getting worse as more people use and interpret the same data, leading to crowded trades that ultimately get flushed? Or am I missing something fundamental in how these metrics truly should be weighted? Keen to hear some pushback here.