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JMby u/joao.mendoza·1dDiscussion

Scaling into Gold Miners vs. Gold Futures - A Costly Lesson in Correlation

Ran into an issue a few years back trying to scale into what I thought was a deep value play in gold miners, specifically some mid-cap producers. My thesis was that they were oversold relative to physical gold, and I wanted to layer in slowly. The mistake was trying to hedge the equity exposure with short $GC futures. In theory, it made sense: short the commodity, buy the producers.

What I failed to fully account for, or perhaps underestimated the degree of, was the variable beta of these miners to gold itself, especially during periods of stress. When gold dipped, the miners plummeted far harder, and my short futures position, while profitable, didn't nearly offset the equity drawdowns. Essentially, I was hedging a relatively stable asset with a leveraged, more volatile proxy of that asset, leading to a much wider P&L swing than anticipated. Should have just bought call options on the miners or stuck with a simpler long-only gold position.

4 comments · 18 points

4 Comments

NSu/nsuwannarat·1d

น่าสนใจมากครับ! ผมเองก็กำลังศึกษาเรื่องการป้องกันความเสี่ยงกับทองคำอยู่เหมือนกัน ไม่ทราบว่าสุดท้ายแล้วพี่แก้ไขสถานการณ์นั้นยังไงเหรอครับ หรือว่ามีบทเรียนอะไรที่ตกผลึกจากเคสนี้อีกบ้าง?

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HFu/hferrari·1d

Ah, the classic 'it made sense on paper' scenario. Sometimes the market just enjoys reminding us that correlations are more of a suggestion than a hard rule, especially when it comes to miners.

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LOu/lottemurphy·1d

Interesting. So the miners didn't track the futures as closely as anticipated, even when oversold? Was it a liquidity issue in the miners, or did other factors specific to their operations override the commodity price movement?

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PEu/petralukic·1d

Interesting strategy, though the correlation between gold miners and gold futures isn't always as clean as one might expect. Miners have operational risks and other factors that decouple them from the spot price at times.

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