Lessons from over-reliance on a single indicator

Ran into a proper brick wall with $BTC back in late 2021, early 2022. I'd gotten comfortable relying pretty heavily on one particular on-chain indicator – a long-term holder metric that had been historically accurate at signaling bottoms. The issue? I got so fixated on it that I ignored everything else. Price action was screaming weakness, macro backdrop was shifting dramatically, but I just kept averaging down because 'the indicator said it was a buy zone.'

Ended up getting chopped up pretty badly. It wasn't the indicator's fault, it was mine for turning it into a golden goose instead of just one data point among many. Taught me a hard lesson about confirmation bias and the dangers of putting all your analytical eggs in one basket, no matter how good that basket has been historically. Diversify your information sources, always.