On-chain vs. the Tickers – LUNA as a Case Study

It's interesting to see how much emphasis is still placed on on-chain metrics, especially when the actual price action can tell a very different story, often with little to no correlation in the short to medium term. Take something like $LUNA, currently trading around $1.24. Many might point to various on-chain indicators suggesting underlying strength or weakness, but ultimately, the market has digested those factors and landed on that price. I've found it more productive to focus on clear support/resistance, volume profile, and broader market sentiment than getting lost in the weeds of transaction counts or wallet distribution. The argument often arises that these are predictive, but I'm skeptical of their utility for actionable trading decisions when the ticker is already reflecting sentiment. Anyone else finding on-chain becoming more noise than signal lately? Push back if you think I'm missing something fundamental here.