BTC hitting 40k by month-end looks unlikely to me now

Been watching BTC's movements quite closely this week, and the energy in the market just feels… different. A lot of the bullish momentum we saw earlier seems to have stalled out, and it's not just a flatlining, it feels more like a slow bleed.

Considering the current macro environment, especially with natural gas $NG having a bit of a rally at 5.63 (+7.85% today alone), suggesting some underlying inflation concerns are still bubbling, it's hard to see a massive influx into risk assets like Bitcoin in the short term. We've been hovering around the mid-30s for a while, and while I thought we might push 40k by month-end a week or two ago, I'm revising that. I'd put the odds of hitting 40k by end of October at probably less than 20% now. More likely, we consolidate here, maybe test some lower levels around 32k-33k if things get choppier. Just my take, not advice, obviously, but the confluence of factors isn't screaming 'breakout' to me.