Bitcoin's macro setup post-halving - are we overthinking it?

Been looking at the usual suspects post-halving for $BTC: demand metrics, ETF flows, mining dynamics. What's striking is how much chatter there is about the 'unprecedented' nature of this cycle, yet price action still seems to be largely driven by broader macro winds. With $VNM sitting at 17.16 and $SI at 20.73, it feels like the narrative of Bitcoin as a purely uncorrelated asset is losing some ground, especially when you consider how quickly liquidity shifts globally. Are we, as a community, putting too much weight on on-chain indicators and not enough on the larger capital movements that dictate most other asset classes? I'm curious to hear where you all think this argument falls flat.