Thoughts on a September AI breakout, or a whimper?

Been pondering whether we see a significant AI related breakout post-summer doldrums. Historically, September can be a pretty volatile month, and with all the chatter around new model releases and enterprise adoption, I'm leaning towards some substantial movement. My gut says there's a 60% chance we see some AI names, particularly the ones tied to foundational models or high-demand inference chips, push past recent highs rather than just drift sideways.

Reasoning isn't rocket science: Q3 earnings will start to bake in, and any positive surprises or forward guidance related to AI revenue could act as a significant catalyst. The flip side, of course, is if a major player underwhelms, it could drag the whole sector down faster than a lead balloon. It's a binary outcome in some respects, but I'm placing my chips on the upside for now, albeit with a healthy dose of skepticism.