Navigating AI Semiconductor Valuations Through Q3
I'm looking at the AI chip sector, specifically how NVDA and its ilk are pricing in future demand. My read is we're probably pushing a bit too hard on the immediate-term revenue projections. There's a decent chance, maybe 60/40, we see a modest correction or at least a significant stall in the upward momentum for these names by late Q3, possibly early Q4. The reasoning is simple: the ramp-up in actual, scaled AI deployment is going to hit some bottlenecks that aren't fully baked into current valuations. We've seen similar cycles before where the promise outpaces the practical application speed. It's not a bear call on AI long-term, just a more sober view on the velocity of earnings translation from hyped innovation. I'd expect some consolidation around current levels, with a risk of a 10-15% pullback from their highs if those deployment bottlenecks become more apparent.