USDCAD - Monthly close above 1.37?
Looking at USDCAD, the pair has been carving out a relatively tight range recently. We're seeing $USDX finding some footing around 25.50, and while CAD has shown some resilience, the underlying macro picture with energy demand and the BOC's cautious stance doesn't suggest a strong tailwind for the loonie to break out significantly.
My take is there's about a 60% probability we'll see USDCAD close the month above 1.37. The current level of 1.3650 feels like a consolidation point before another leg higher, especially if global growth concerns persist, favoring the dollar.