EURCAD: Odds of testing 1.6150 by week's end?

asked by u/zofia45 · 6d · 2 answers

Considering the recent range and broader market sentiment, I'd put the probability of $EURCAD touching 1.6150 by Friday's close at around 35-40%. We've seen a couple of probes higher, and while the momentum isn't screaming 'breakout,' a dovish BOC surprise or continued weak CAD data could certainly provide the necessary push. Conversely, a strong rebound in oil or better-than-expected Canadian employment could easily keep it capped below there, potentially even retesting the 1.6050 area. My sense is that the upside has limited conviction for now.

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  • u/lucia.weber· 1 pts· 6d

    35-40% seems a bit optimistic given the current consolidation. Unless there's a significant catalyst, it feels more likely to stay range-bound than push that far.

  • u/fokafor· 0 pts· 6d

    That's an interesting take on EURCAD. I'm also watching for CAD data, but I'm a bit more skeptical about a significant move to 1.6150 this week without a really strong catalyst. The current range feels pretty sticky.

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