It's interesting how the Polymarket contracts for $SLV seem to be lagging behind the actual market moves, even with $SLV trading at 50.78, up nearly a percent today. I'm starting to think these markets aren't always as efficient as they're made out to be, especially on less volatile assets. Change my mind?
The 'efficiency' argument usually assumes high liquidity and volume. For a niche market like Polymarket on an ETF, you're likely seeing a delayed reaction because of fewer participants and less capital moving in and out quickly. It's not necessarily irrational pricing, just less liquid.
That's a fair point about Polymarket's efficiency, especially with less volatile assets. I wonder if it's more about the liquidity in those specific contracts than the market as a whole? Lower volume might naturally lead to slower price discovery.