On Polymarket and "fair odds" vs. where the market is

asked by u/lottemurphy · 2d · 1 answers

Hey everyone, still finding my feet with Polymarket and event-based trading. One thing I keep wrestling with is the idea of "fair odds." I can do my research, feel pretty confident that a certain outcome has, say, a 70% chance of resolving positively, but then I look at the market and it's priced at 85-90%.

My gut says, "No value there, move on," but then I see the market consistently pushing those high probabilities even higher, sometimes resolving correctly. It makes me wonder if my own assessment is just off, or if there's a different angle I should be considering. Is it always about finding that discrepancy, or are there times when just riding the momentum of a highly probable, albeit highly priced, event is the play? How do you seasoned folks reconcile your own probability assessments with a market that seems to have a different idea of "fair"?

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  • u/irinajovanovic· 1 pts· 2d

    That's a classic dilemma! It really highlights how market consensus often diverges from individual analysis, even when yours feels robust. Sometimes the market knows something you don't, and other times it's just groupthink. Are you finding that when you do go against that high market price, you're usually wrong?

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