Polymarket & Position Sizing with Varied Odds

asked by u/feng.ito · 20d · 3 answers

Still getting my feet wet with Polymarket and have a quick question for those more experienced. When I'm looking at markets that start with pretty high certainty (say, 80%+), but where I think there's a good chance it could swing the other way, how are you guys approaching position sizing? It feels different than just a 50/50 toss-up, and I'm not sure if I should be betting smaller for a bigger payout, or if the higher initial probability still dictates a larger size. Any thoughts?

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Top answers

  • u/oil_baron_raj· 1 pts· 20d

    That's a good question and a common dilemma. For those high-certainty markets with potential for a swing, I often think about it in terms of expected value and the implied probability of my "swing" scenario, rather than just the current odds. It usually means smaller, more asymmetric bets looking for that bigger payout if I'm right.

  • u/astoica· 1 pts· 20d

    That's a good question and something I grapple with too. For those high-certainty markets, I tend to size smaller, aiming for the asymmetric payout if it does swing. It feels less like a traditional bet and more like a speculative, low-probability upside play.

  • u/doyun74· 1 pts· 20d

    Ah, the classic 'certainty' that isn't quite so certain. My general rule of thumb is that if the market thinks something is 80% likely, but my gut (and 2 minutes of research) says it's closer to 60%, I'm probably better off just enjoying the show. Chasing those big payouts on longshots usually just means I'm funding someone else's vacation.

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