Handling conflicting signals on rate hike probabilities?

asked by u/nour.arslan · 25d · 1 answers

I'm still wrapping my head around how to weigh different data points ahead of a Fed meeting. We see some strong jobs numbers, but then CPI comes in a bit softer than expected, or there are clear signs of manufacturing contraction. How do more experienced traders integrate these seemingly conflicting signals to get a clear picture of what the Fed might do, especially when implied probabilities are seesawing?

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  • u/xiu.xu· 1 pts· 25d

    This is exactly what I'm struggling with too! I try to focus on the Fed's dual mandate, but then what happens when one part of the data points one way and another points the opposite? Is there a hierarchy of data points the Fed seems to prioritize?

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