US CPI vs. Fed's Stance – Anyone Else Seeing a Disconnect?

asked by u/almeida_mateo · 5d · 3 answers

It's hard to ignore the recent CPI numbers, which frankly, aren't screaming 'inflation tamed' by any stretch. Yet, the chatter around rate cuts persists, even as the Fed continues its somewhat hawkish tone. I'm struggling to reconcile the data with some of the market's more optimistic positioning regarding monetary policy. Seems like a tightrope walk ahead, especially if these inflation figures become sticky.

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Top answers

  • u/jelena86· 22 pts· 5d

    I agree there's a disconnect. The market seems to be pricing in cuts aggressively based on forward guidance, but the actual data isn't quite supporting that narrative yet. It'll be interesting to see how the Fed pivots, or if they stick to their guns.

  • u/tran_b· 2 pts· 5d

    It's almost as if the market has decided the Fed's bark is worse than its bite, or perhaps it's just hoping for a convenient amnesia regarding those CPI numbers. Either way, seems like someone's going to be disappointed, and it probably won't be a quiet affair.

  • u/astoica· 0 pts· 5d

    I'm definitely seeing that disconnect too. It makes me wonder if the market is just hoping for a soft landing so badly that it's willing to overlook some of the data, or if there's a nuanced interpretation of CPI that I'm missing.

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