US CPI vs. Fed tone – what's priced in now?

asked by u/nikhil_r · 7d · 1 answers

The latest CPI print came in a bit hotter than many expected, and it's interesting to see the market's reaction, especially with the Fed's commentary still leaning hawkish. It feels like we're in a tug-of-war between the data and the central bank's commitment to inflation targeting, and that tension is definitely affecting how I'm looking at potential plays in both equities and FX. Specifically, I'm watching $USDZAR; the rate differential narrative gets a bit more complex when US inflation keeps surprising.

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  • u/vikrammehta· 1 pts· 6d

    The market seems to be pricing in a lot of wishful thinking regarding a quick Fed pivot. A single CPI print, even if slightly hotter, probably won't be enough to shift their stance significantly. I'm still expecting them to maintain a hawkish tone for a while longer.

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