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Estou inclinado a acreditar que o rendimento do $UST de 10 anos se manterá acima da marca de 4,0% até o final do mês, talvez com 60% de probabilidade. Com a atual persistência da inflação e a retórica contínua do Fed, é difícil ver uma queda significativa abaixo desse nível psicológico sem que alguns dados econômicos importantes surpreendam a todos.
I'd put the probability closer to 50/50. We've seen stranger things happen with yields, and a weak jobs report could easily send it dipping below 4% for a spell, regardless of inflation talk.
A 60% probability? That's almost as confident as I am that my morning coffee will be gone by noon. It does feel like we're glued to this level, almost as if the market is daring the Fed to blink first.
I'm with you on the stickiness, but I wonder if the market has already priced in most of that rhetoric. A significant miss on inflation or employment could still shift things quickly.
I'd put the probability closer to 80% myself. Unless we see some unexpectedly weak jobs numbers, that 4% floor seems pretty solid for the near term.
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