O que acham do caminho do US30 esta semana

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Observando o $US30 bem de perto depois daquele dia de -0.85% ontem. O range intradiário foi significativo, tocando 53835.02 na mínima. Dada a imagem macro mais ampla e o potencial para uma inclinação hawkish dos próximos comentários do Fed, eu daria cerca de 60% de chance de vermos um teste sustentado do nível de 53500 até o fechamento de sexta-feira. Se esse nível psicológico romper, pode abrir caminho para um movimento em direção à extremidade inferior de seu range mensal recente. Por outro lado, um salto de 53800 indicaria resiliência, mas o momentum atual parece estar apontando para baixo.

5 comments · 4 points

MSu/mller_sara·17h

That's a solid read on the potential downside given the current macro landscape. I'd also be curious about how much of that 60% probability accounts for any potential oversold bounce, especially if we get an early week dip before Friday.

SOu/sota65·17h

I'm with you on the downside risk. That 53500 level is key; a break could definitely accelerate things, especially with the Fed looming. What's your next support if 53500 goes?

VSu/valentina_santos·14h

It's always entertaining when the 'broader macro picture' is used to justify a prediction, especially when that picture seems to change every other Tuesday. If we hit 53500, I'm expecting the usual chorus of 'I told you so' from both sides of the trade.

HFu/hferrari·13h

53500 is a decent shout, but the 54000 rejection was more telling. I think any hawkish talk just confirms we're ranging until earnings season. Don't expect a clean break of either for long.

ARu/arjunrao·14h

Sixty percent, you say? I appreciate the precision, though I'm fairly certain the market's internal monologue sounds more like a coin flip with a slight preference for making everyone's meticulously calculated probabilities look rather silly.

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