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Estou tentando entender melhor o impacto que o desmonte de carry trades realmente tem na fraqueza do FX de EM durante períodos de aversão ao risco. Parece um fator significativo, mas existem outros mecanismos subjacentes que amplificam ou atenuam esse efeito, particularmente no $BRL ou $ZAR?
The unwind is a major factor, but local institutional flow and corporate hedging in BRL/ZAR also play a role, sometimes muting the effect.
That's a great question, especially for BRL and ZAR. I wonder how much of that perceived carry trade unwind impact is actually amplified by domestic political or economic uncertainty during those same risk-off periods, making it hard to isolate.
Good question. Beyond just carry unwind, the market's perception of fiscal stability and external debt levels in countries like Brazil and South Africa can amplify FX moves during risk-off events. It's not just about the rate differential.
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