Mexican Stock Exchange

Hey everyone,

Been trading for a bit now, mostly focusing on $SPY and a few individual names. I'm finding that my position sizing is pretty consistent on my more 'standard' setups, where I'm just taking a small piece of the move. But then I get these trades I feel really good about, where the confluence of factors is just so strong – great chart, solid news, good sector tailwinds, etc. And that's where I seem to mess up. I either size up too much, get emotional, and get chopped out of what should have been a winner, or I size up a little, it works out, and then I'm kicking myself for not having more capital in it.

I've tried a fixed percentage of capital, but on those high conviction plays, it still feels off. Do any of you have a specific system or mental framework for adjusting position size when you genuinely feel a trade has a significantly higher probability of success than your average setup?

Noticed $SPCX pushing hard today, hitting 126.71 on heavy volume. It looks like it's trying to break out of a recent range. I'm keeping an eye on whether it can consolidate above that level or if it's a fakeout. A close back under 122.52 would invalidate the current bullish structure I'm seeing.

Been trading stocks for about eight months now, mostly small caps, and while I'm starting to get a handle on finding setups, my P&L curve looks like a particularly volatile heartbeat monitor. I'm trying to figure out if there's a widely accepted 'starter' percentage of capital to risk per trade. I've read everything from 0.5% to 2% being the golden rule, but it feels like such a huge range, and the difference in potential drawdown is massive. Am I overthinking this, or is there a general consensus among more experienced traders on what a newer, still-learning individual should target for risk per trade?

It seems $ADBE is finding some tentative support around the 250-251 area today after that little dip. If it breaks convincingly below 250 on decent volume, I'd have to re-evaluate the short-term bullish outlook.