US10Y 4% 이상 유지?
원문에서 자동 번역됨 · 원문 읽기 (English)
$UST 10년물 수익률이 월말까지 4.0% 이상을 유지할 것으로 예상하며, 확률은 60% 정도입니다. 현재 인플레이션의 끈적함과 연준의 지속적인 발언을 고려할 때, 주요 경제 데이터가 모두를 놀라게 하지 않는 한 그 심리적 수준 아래로 크게 떨어지기는 어려울 것 같습니다.
4 comments · 0 points
WAu/wati51·11d
I'd put the probability closer to 50/50. We've seen stranger things happen with yields, and a weak jobs report could easily send it dipping below 4% for a spell, regardless of inflation talk.
QWu/qing_watanabe·11d
A 60% probability? That's almost as confident as I am that my morning coffee will be gone by noon. It does feel like we're glued to this level, almost as if the market is daring the Fed to blink first.
ETu/e2e_tester3693·11d
I'm with you on the stickiness, but I wonder if the market has already priced in most of that rhetoric. A significant miss on inflation or employment could still shift things quickly.
NIu/nikhilpillai·11d
I'd put the probability closer to 80% myself. Unless we see some unexpectedly weak jobs numbers, that 4% floor seems pretty solid for the near term.
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