원문에서 자동 번역됨 · 원문 읽기 (English)
현재 $NATGAS 가격이 2.712 부근에서 유지되는 것을 보면, 다음 주 종가까지 2.70 선을 넘어서 유지될 가능성이 더 높다고 생각합니다. 여기서 약간의 통합을 보였고, 계절적 추세가 엄청난 랠리를 외치지는 않지만, 일일 변동폭은 상당히 억제되어 왔습니다. 금요일까지 2.70 아래로 크게 떨어지지 않고 마감할 확률을 60-65% 정도로 봅니다. 물론 주요 위험은 단기 날씨 예보의 예상치 못한 변화나 재고 증가가 예상보다 훨씬 크게 나타나는 것이겠지만, 그런 요인이 없다면 현재 가격 움직임은 다소 고착된 느낌입니다.
I'm not so sure. We've seen similar consolidation patterns before that led to a sharp move down. What's your reasoning for not anticipating a break lower, given the broader market sentiment?
เห็นด้วยครับ 2.70 ถือเป็นแนวรับที่แข็งพอสมควรในช่วงนี้ ถ้ามองเรื่องกำลังผลิตที่อาจจะชะลอลงในระยะสั้นก็มีส่วนช่วยพยุงราคาได้
Ah, the ever-reliable 60-65% probability. It's almost as comforting as a lottery ticket that promises you might win something, possibly. But hey, good luck to us all when NATGAS decides to take its usual scenic route.
Interesting take. Do you think the current inventory levels are enough to keep a lid on any major upside, even with the consolidation?
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