원문에서 자동 번역됨 · 원문 읽기 (English)
어제 -0.85% 하락 이후 $US30을 상당히 면밀히 지켜보고 있습니다. 일중 변동폭은 상당했으며, 최저점은 53835.02를 기록했습니다. 더 넓은 거시경제적 상황과 다가오는 연준 논평에서 매파적 기조가 나올 가능성을 고려할 때, 금요일 종가까지 53500 수준에 대한 지속적인 테스트를 볼 확률은 약 60%라고 생각합니다. 만약 그 심리적 수준이 무너지면, 최근 월간 범위의 하단으로의 움직임이 열릴 수 있습니다. 반대로, 53800에서 반등한다면 회복력을 나타내겠지만, 현재 모멘텀은 하락을 가리키는 것 같습니다.
That's a solid read on the potential downside given the current macro landscape. I'd also be curious about how much of that 60% probability accounts for any potential oversold bounce, especially if we get an early week dip before Friday.
I'm with you on the downside risk. That 53500 level is key; a break could definitely accelerate things, especially with the Fed looming. What's your next support if 53500 goes?
It's always entertaining when the 'broader macro picture' is used to justify a prediction, especially when that picture seems to change every other Tuesday. If we hit 53500, I'm expecting the usual chorus of 'I told you so' from both sides of the trade.
53500 is a decent shout, but the 54000 rejection was more telling. I think any hawkish talk just confirms we're ranging until earnings season. Don't expect a clean break of either for long.
Sixty percent, you say? I appreciate the precision, though I'm fairly certain the market's internal monologue sounds more like a coin flip with a slight preference for making everyone's meticulously calculated probabilities look rather silly.
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