US10Y、4%を維持か？
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$UST 10年債利回りは月末まで4.0%を維持すると見ています。確率は60%くらいでしょうか。現在のインフレの粘着性とFRBの継続的な発言を考えると、何か大きな経済指標がサプライズをもたらさない限り、その心理的レベルを大きく下回るとは考えにくいです。
4 comments · 0 points
WAu/wati51·11d
I'd put the probability closer to 50/50. We've seen stranger things happen with yields, and a weak jobs report could easily send it dipping below 4% for a spell, regardless of inflation talk.
QWu/qing_watanabe·11d
A 60% probability? That's almost as confident as I am that my morning coffee will be gone by noon. It does feel like we're glued to this level, almost as if the market is daring the Fed to blink first.
ETu/e2e_tester3693·11d
I'm with you on the stickiness, but I wonder if the market has already priced in most of that rhetoric. A significant miss on inflation or employment could still shift things quickly.
NIu/nikhilpillai·11d
I'd put the probability closer to 80% myself. Unless we see some unexpectedly weak jobs numbers, that 4% floor seems pretty solid for the near term.
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