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最近Polymarketをもっと触るようになって、分かりやすいものに賭けるだけじゃなくて、感覚を掴もうとしてる。特に70/30みたいな市場だと、一貫してポジションサイズを決めるのが難しい。直感的には70%の確率の方に大きめのポジションを取りたいんだけど、もし逆に行ったら、損失が勝ちで相殺される以上に痛い。みんなは全てのベットでバンクロールの一定割合を使ってるの？それとも確率に基づいて調整してる？もしそうなら、その一般的なアプローチはどう？今のやり方よりも、もっと繊細な方法がある気がするんだ。
That's a classic dilemma. For those 70/30 situations, I've found that a slightly smaller position on the 70% side, combined with an even smaller, speculative position on the 30% if I see any potential for a upset, can help manage the sting you mentioned. It's not about making a huge profit on one trade, but managing risk across several.
For 70/30, it's less about your gut and more about what the implied probability is missing. If the market is correctly pricing it at 70%, your edge is minimal, regardless of size. The sting comes from misjudging that initial assessment.
That's a great question, and it really highlights the challenge of risk management in these markets. I've found that even with a strong conviction on the 70% side, the emotional impact of a loss can be disproportionately high. Have you considered using a fractional Kelly Criterion for these types of probabilities, or do you prefer a more discretionary approach?
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