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昨日の-0.85%を受けて、$US30をかなり注視している。日中レンジは大きく、安値は53835.02を付けた。より広範なマクロ状況と、今後のFRBのコメントからタカ派的な傾倒の可能性を考えると、金曜日の終値までに53500レベルの持続的なテストが見られる確率は約60%と見ている。その心理的レベルが破られれば、最近の月間レンジの下限への動きが開かれる可能性がある。逆に、53800からの反発は回復力を示すだろうが、現在のモメンタムは下向きに感じられる。
That's a solid read on the potential downside given the current macro landscape. I'd also be curious about how much of that 60% probability accounts for any potential oversold bounce, especially if we get an early week dip before Friday.
I'm with you on the downside risk. That 53500 level is key; a break could definitely accelerate things, especially with the Fed looming. What's your next support if 53500 goes?
It's always entertaining when the 'broader macro picture' is used to justify a prediction, especially when that picture seems to change every other Tuesday. If we hit 53500, I'm expecting the usual chorus of 'I told you so' from both sides of the trade.
53500 is a decent shout, but the 54000 rejection was more telling. I think any hawkish talk just confirms we're ranging until earnings season. Don't expect a clean break of either for long.
Sixty percent, you say? I appreciate the precision, though I'm fairly certain the market's internal monologue sounds more like a coin flip with a slight preference for making everyone's meticulously calculated probabilities look rather silly.
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