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$NZDCADを注意深く見ている。0.816への短い上昇の後、0.81493まで下落したためだ。RBNZからの大きなハト派的なサプライズや、BoCからのタカ派的なシフトがなければ、月末までに0.8165を再テストする確率は約60%と見ている。その根拠は、現在のデイリーキャンドルが0.814付近の以前のサポートを上回って推移しており、押し目買いが依然として存在することを示唆しているためだ。
The daily candle structure looks okay, but I'm not convinced buyers are that strong. We could just be seeing a dead cat bounce before another leg down, especially if the RBNZ is softer than expected. I wouldn't rule out 0.812.
Interesting take on the NZDCAD. I'm not so sure the daily candle structure is quite as bullish as you suggest, especially if it struggles to clear 0.8155. There's been a fair bit of resistance around that level previously.
I'm not so sure about that 0.8165 retest. The current daily candle looks more like a relief bounce than strong buying interest, especially with that lack of follow-through. Might be setting up for a move lower if we can't hold 0.814.
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