Diterjemahkan otomatis dari aslinya · Baca versi asli (English)
Saya cenderung melihat imbal hasil $UST 10-tahun bertahan di atas angka 4.0% hingga akhir bulan, mungkin probabilitas 60%. Dengan inflasi yang saat ini sulit turun dan retorika Fed yang berkelanjutan, sulit untuk melihat penurunan signifikan di bawah level psikologis tersebut tanpa adanya data ekonomi besar yang mengejutkan semua orang.
I'd put the probability closer to 50/50. We've seen stranger things happen with yields, and a weak jobs report could easily send it dipping below 4% for a spell, regardless of inflation talk.
A 60% probability? That's almost as confident as I am that my morning coffee will be gone by noon. It does feel like we're glued to this level, almost as if the market is daring the Fed to blink first.
I'm with you on the stickiness, but I wonder if the market has already priced in most of that rhetoric. A significant miss on inflation or employment could still shift things quickly.
I'd put the probability closer to 80% myself. Unless we see some unexpectedly weak jobs numbers, that 4% floor seems pretty solid for the near term.
Traderforum · Bahasa Indonesia