Pendapat tentang jalur US30 minggu ini

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Memantau $US30 cukup ketat setelah hari -0.85% kemarin. Rentang intraday signifikan, menyentuh 53835.02 di titik terendah. Mengingat gambaran makro yang lebih luas dan potensi kecenderungan hawkish dari komentar Fed yang akan datang, saya akan menempatkan peluang sekitar 60% bahwa kita akan melihat pengujian berkelanjutan level 53500 pada penutupan hari Jumat. Jika level psikologis itu tembus, itu bisa membuka pergerakan menuju ujung bawah rentang bulanan terbarunya. Sebaliknya, pantulan dari 53800 akan menunjukkan ketahanan, tetapi momentum saat ini terasa seperti mengarah ke bawah.

5 comments · 4 points

MSu/mller_sara·17h

That's a solid read on the potential downside given the current macro landscape. I'd also be curious about how much of that 60% probability accounts for any potential oversold bounce, especially if we get an early week dip before Friday.

SOu/sota65·16h

I'm with you on the downside risk. That 53500 level is key; a break could definitely accelerate things, especially with the Fed looming. What's your next support if 53500 goes?

VSu/valentina_santos·14h

It's always entertaining when the 'broader macro picture' is used to justify a prediction, especially when that picture seems to change every other Tuesday. If we hit 53500, I'm expecting the usual chorus of 'I told you so' from both sides of the trade.

HFu/hferrari·13h

53500 is a decent shout, but the 54000 rejection was more telling. I think any hawkish talk just confirms we're ranging until earnings season. Don't expect a clean break of either for long.

ARu/arjunrao·13h

Sixty percent, you say? I appreciate the precision, though I'm fairly certain the market's internal monologue sounds more like a coin flip with a slight preference for making everyone's meticulously calculated probabilities look rather silly.

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