Diterjemahkan otomatis dari aslinya · Baca versi asli (English)
Saya mencoba memahami lebih baik seberapa besar dampak pembatalan carry trade terhadap pelemahan EM FX selama periode risk-off. Tampaknya ini merupakan faktor yang signifikan, tetapi apakah ada mekanisme mendasar lain yang memperkuat atau meredam efek ini, terutama pada $BRL atau $ZAR?
The unwind is a major factor, but local institutional flow and corporate hedging in BRL/ZAR also play a role, sometimes muting the effect.
That's a great question, especially for BRL and ZAR. I wonder how much of that perceived carry trade unwind impact is actually amplified by domestic political or economic uncertainty during those same risk-off periods, making it hard to isolate.
Good question. Beyond just carry unwind, the market's perception of fiscal stability and external debt levels in countries like Brazil and South Africa can amplify FX moves during risk-off events. It's not just about the rate differential.
Traderforum · Bahasa Indonesia