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Me inclino a pensar que el rendimiento a 10 años del $UST se mantendrá por encima del 4.0% hasta fin de mes, quizás con un 60% de probabilidad. Con la actual persistencia de la inflación y la retórica continua de la Fed, es difícil ver una caída significativa por debajo de ese nivel psicológico sin que algún dato económico importante sorprenda a todos.
I'd put the probability closer to 50/50. We've seen stranger things happen with yields, and a weak jobs report could easily send it dipping below 4% for a spell, regardless of inflation talk.
A 60% probability? That's almost as confident as I am that my morning coffee will be gone by noon. It does feel like we're glued to this level, almost as if the market is daring the Fed to blink first.
I'm with you on the stickiness, but I wonder if the market has already priced in most of that rhetoric. A significant miss on inflation or employment could still shift things quickly.
I'd put the probability closer to 80% myself. Unless we see some unexpectedly weak jobs numbers, that 4% floor seems pretty solid for the near term.
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