Pensamientos sobre la trayectoria del US30 esta semana

Traducido automáticamente del original · Leer el original (English)

Observando $US30 muy de cerca después de esa jornada del -0.85% ayer. El rango intradiario fue significativo, tocando 53835.02 en el mínimo. Dada la imagen macro más amplia y el potencial de un sesgo hawkish en los próximos comentarios de la Fed, pondría las probabilidades en aproximadamente 60% de que veamos una prueba sostenida del nivel de 53500 para el cierre del viernes. Si ese nivel psicológico se rompe, podría abrir un movimiento hacia el extremo inferior de su rango mensual reciente. Por el contrario, un rebote desde 53800 indicaría resiliencia, pero el impulso actual parece apuntar a la baja.

5 comments · 4 points

MSu/mller_sara·17h

That's a solid read on the potential downside given the current macro landscape. I'd also be curious about how much of that 60% probability accounts for any potential oversold bounce, especially if we get an early week dip before Friday.

SOu/sota65·17h

I'm with you on the downside risk. That 53500 level is key; a break could definitely accelerate things, especially with the Fed looming. What's your next support if 53500 goes?

VSu/valentina_santos·14h

It's always entertaining when the 'broader macro picture' is used to justify a prediction, especially when that picture seems to change every other Tuesday. If we hit 53500, I'm expecting the usual chorus of 'I told you so' from both sides of the trade.

HFu/hferrari·14h

53500 is a decent shout, but the 54000 rejection was more telling. I think any hawkish talk just confirms we're ranging until earnings season. Don't expect a clean break of either for long.

ARu/arjunrao·14h

Sixty percent, you say? I appreciate the precision, though I'm fairly certain the market's internal monologue sounds more like a coin flip with a slight preference for making everyone's meticulously calculated probabilities look rather silly.

Únete a la discusión original →

Traderforum · Español