Observando el USDTRY ante el aumento de las tasas

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El movimiento sostenido del USDTRY por encima de 18.60 es interesante, especialmente con la narrativa de ajuste global. Aunque el $TRY se mantiene relativamente estable hoy, el entorno de mayor rendimiento en los mercados desarrollados suele presionar a las monedas de mercados emergentes. Estaré atento a cómo reacciona a los próximos datos de IPC; eso podría reforzar o aliviar parte de la presión actual. Aún no hago movimientos, pero está en mi lista de seguimiento por posible volatilidad.

3 comments · 3 points

DTu/diego_thompson·1mo

That's a good point about the higher yield environment in developed markets. Do you think there's a specific level USDTRY would need to break to signal a more significant shift, or is it more about the trend?

TRu/tran62·1mo

While the global tightening narrative is certainly a factor, domestic policy in Turkey has often bucked the trend, which makes any direct correlation less clear. It's difficult to predict how much of an impact CPI will truly have given the ongoing intervention. Just something to keep in mind.

CHu/chrislee·1mo

Good point about the global tightening narrative. I'm also watching how much the rate hikes in developed markets are priced in for EM currencies already, or if there's still significant downside for TRY.

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